2026 is bringing us a lot more fireballs but we don’t know why!

The first quarter of 2026 has produced a significant surge in large fireball events, and the American Meteor Society says that the data shows a pattern that warrants serious investigation. This article is for sure wonky but the topline takeaway is that more sightings seen by more people, especially those accompanied by sonic booms mean bigger objects:

The AMS fireball reporting system has been in continuous operation since 2005 and reached maturity around 2016–2018, with annual Q1 event totals stabilizing in the range of 1,100–1,400 events. What follows is an analysis of Q1 data from 2011–2026, with particular attention to the 2021–2026 window where the reporting platform has been fully stable.

The most important finding from our analysis is that the total number of fireball events is not dramatically unusual. Q1 2026’s 2,046 total events is the highest on record but only marginally above 2022 (2,037) and 2021 (1,947). If this were simply a matter of more people filing reports, we would expect a proportional increase across all witness-count thresholds. That is not what we see.

…At the 25+ report threshold, 2026 has produced 61 events versus a 2021–2025 average of roughly 43—up about 42%. At 50+ reports, 2026 has 38 events versus an average of 18—more than double. And at 100+, the count of 14 is twice the average of 7. The signal gets stronger as the threshold rises, which is the hallmark of a genuine physical change in the incoming material, not a reporting artifact.

…If the fireballs were simply being seen by more people due to favorable conditions, we would not expect changes in the physical characteristics reported by witnesses. But the data shows an elevated rate of delayed sound reports—sonic booms reaching the ground—which requires objects that penetrate deep enough into the atmosphere to produce pressure waves.

You can (and should) read on for lots more if you are interested!

Matt shared this photo he took looking over Lime Lake back in 2018 & says he was just kidding about the “meteor strike” part. Check out his showcase on Flickr for more.

Here’s a video of a November 4, 2026 fireball captured from multiple weather cams on the Michigan Storm Chasers network.